Horseracing Fans - the Anatomy of a Free Horse Racing Handicapping System
I'm going to list the rules, and then I will explain why the system works and critique its advantages and weaknesses.
Here are the Three Rules
First: The race has to be a claiming race with the exception that it can't be a maiden claiming race. You can see if the race is a claiming race by looking at the race description at the top of the track program or in the past performances.
Second: Calculate each horse's lifetime earnings per start. Use this simple equation to calculate the LEPS: (lifetime earnings) / (lifetime starts) = (lifetime earnings per start). Look for the horse's lifetime earnings and starts in the upper right corner of its listing in the past performances.
Third: Bet the horse to win that has the largest lifetime earnings per start if it goes to post at 8-to-1 or higher odds.
Why this Horse Racing System Works
Horses have different levels of ability. That is why there are different class levels in thoroughbred horseracing. If a race horse is in good condition, he will win easily if he is entered in a race at a lower class level.
When a horse meets the requirements of these three rules, he will have undoubtedly been competitive at higher class levels in the past. The horses selected by this system as a rule can no longer win at their former class level because they have suffered injuries. So they are used by the racing insiders as "betting tools." The trainers keep racing these horses because they are looking to use them to make money cashing large bets. The trainer knows that if the horse can return to its former form even if it is only for one more race, it will easily defeat the lower class field in today's race. So because of manipulation by the trainer, these horses do win and often win unexpectedly without showing any signs of improvement. Also because of trainer manipulation, these horses will pay huge odds.
The Strengths and Disadvantages
This system can be extremely profitable over the long run and will steadily return a profit of twenty to thirty percent per each dollar you wager. The win percentage of the system, however, is very low and will only average from 10% to 14%. What this means is if you start using this system you should expect to see large streaks of consecutive losers.
According to the laws of probability, the size or number of losing streaks you can expect from any handicapping method is determined by the system's win percentage. If as an example, let's say you were to win about fourteen percent of the time, which is realistic but a somewhat optimistic assumption for this system. You should expect to see one losing streak of 34 consecutive losers in every series of 1000 bets. So making the assumption of a win percentage of 14%, we should also expect see 27 losing streaks of 10 or more losing bets in a row for each 1000 horses wagered. This would mean you would be in a losing streak of 10 or more consecutive losers about 37% of the time while betting the method.
One of the most important factors to evaluate when considering any betting system is the percentage of winners. If you would prefer a handicapping system with a higher percentage of winners than this method, take a look at "The Indicator Handicapping Method" at my website, turfanalyst.com.